China’s EV Market Share May Climb to 80% by 2030, Reshaping Oil Demand

China could see electric vehicles account for 75–80% of its vehicle market by 2030, although further growth is expected to become more gradual as adoption increases and the market matures. The projection was shared by Wang Pei, deputy general manager of Sinopec’s Economics & Development Research Institute, at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC), according to China Daily.

Wang noted that new energy vehicles (NEVs), including battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models, represented 65% of China’s vehicle market in July. This compares with 53% in the same month last year and just 5% in 2020, underlining the rapid transformation of the country’s automotive sector.

Electric Mobility Reduces Consumption of Petroleum Fuels

The growing popularity of NEVs is expected to significantly affect China’s demand for conventional transport fuels. The research institute estimates that these vehicles will replace approximately 56 million tonnes of domestic oil consumption in 2026, equivalent to around 1.2 million barrels per day. This represents nearly 15% of the country’s total refined oil demand.

According to Wang, gasoline-powered vehicles account for roughly two-thirds of the displaced fuel consumption, while diesel vehicles make up the remainder.

Government initiatives are supporting this transition through expanded public charging networks, policies encouraging EV adoption in rural areas and measures aligned with China’s climate commitments. These include reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060.

Refiners Shift Investment Towards Chemicals and Integrated Energy Services

China’s changing transport energy landscape is prompting traditional refiners to reassess their business strategies. As demand for road transport fuels approaches its peak, companies are increasingly exploring higher-value chemicals and advanced synthetic materials as alternative growth opportunities.

The institute reported that China’s chemical industry recorded profit growth of more than 50% year-on-year during the first seven months of the year.

Energy companies are also adapting their retail infrastructure to accommodate changing consumer requirements. Sinopec and other state-owned operators are transforming conventional fuel stations into multifunctional energy hubs equipped with high-speed EV charging, battery-swapping facilities and hydrogen refuelling services, while continuing to provide traditional fuels.

Aviation Fuel Consumption Expected to Continue Growing

Despite the shift towards electrification in road transport, demand for aviation fuel is forecast to remain on an upward trajectory. China’s jet fuel consumption is projected to increase by 1.3% in 2026 to 41.55 million tonnes, supported by recovering passenger traffic and the expansion of international air connectivity.

Capacity Rationalisation to Reshape China’s Refining Industry

Environmental regulations and stricter efficiency requirements are expected to accelerate structural changes across China’s refining sector. The research institute anticipates the gradual withdrawal of 80 million to 100 million tonnes of capacity from outdated and inefficient small and medium-sized refineries.

This rationalisation is projected to bring the country’s total refining capacity to approximately 900 million–910 million tonnes by 2030.

The developments point to a broader transition in China’s energy industry, where increasing EV adoption is reducing reliance on conventional road fuels while encouraging refiners to diversify into chemicals, alternative energy infrastructure and other higher-value businesses. The detailed article is published by https://www.reuters.com/ can be accessed from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-ev-penetration-could-reach-80-by-2030-sinopec-researcher-says-2026-09-10/